Econ Blog
The US labor market over time: payrolls, slack, turnover and wages
One date range, the main labor market lines for hiring: payrolls and their trend, unemployment and underemployment, openings per job seeker, quits and layoffs, participation, wages against prices, jobless claims and the Sahm rule.
By Matthew Dettman, ChFC, CLU, founder of Second Difference Solutions. Updated .
Showing Nov 2021 to Oct 2026
- Payroll change, latest month
- +29,000
- Jobs added or lost
- Payroll change, three-month average
- 50,667
- Jobs per month
- Unemployment rate, latest month
- 4.2%
- Headline measure
- Openings per unemployed person
- 1.01x
- Latest month both surveys cover
- Hourly earnings, year over year
- 3.0%
- Private-sector employees
- Sahm rule reading
- 0.00 pts
- Historical recession signal at half a point
Payroll change and its trend
Monthly change in total nonfarm payrolls with its three- and twelve-month trailing averages, jobs.
Total nonfarm payrolls
Total nonfarm payroll employment, seasonally adjusted, jobs.
How to read these charts
Payroll change is the monthly gain or loss in jobs from the establishment survey; the two trailing averages show the trend through revisions and noise. The household survey and the consumer price index have no reading for one month of the federal government shutdown; that month is blank on the unemployment, underemployment, participation, Sahm rule, openings and CPI lines, and the charts join the months either side. Openings per unemployed person divides the JOLTS openings count by the household survey count of unemployed people. Quits tend to rise in tight labor markets and layoffs rise when demand falls. Prime-age participation is less affected by an aging population than the headline rate. The wage and price lines are year over year, so their gap roughly tracks real wage growth. Initial claims are weekly and often move early; continued claims lag. Every series comes from FRED.