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Econ Blog
If you wanted to argue the US economy is mediocre OR strong, this chart supports either reading. The smoothed average sits at 2.1%, below the 3% post-WWII trend and above the 1% European norm.
Real GDP (gross domestic product adjusted for inflation) is the single most comprehensive measure of US economic activity. Year-on-year percent change is what most analysts watch, because the level number (in the trillions) doesn't communicate cyclicality.
Quarter-century average
Post-WWII trend
Peer-group benchmark
The negative bars at 2009 and 2020 mark the GFC and the pandemic. 2021's 5.8% rebound is the second-largest annual growth print since the 1980s. Most other years cluster between 1.5% and 3%.
Average real GDP growth from 2000-2025 was approximately 2.1% annually. The 2000-2025 window therefore looks like underperformance against the long-run US trend but outperformance against most peers. Both readings are correct, which is exactly why the headline GDP number fuels permanent disagreement between bullish and bearish narratives.
Annual GDP smooths out a lot. Quarterly data ranges from -8% to +35% (both annualized) within this same window. The 2020-Q2 collapse and 2020-Q3 rebound are nearly invisible in the annual number because they canceled within the year.
For high-frequency monitoring, watch quarterly. For the trend, the annual chart above is the right tool.
The post-GFC slowdown sparked the "secular stagnation" debate: the hypothesis that demographics + productivity dynamics had structurally lowered the US growth rate. The 2017-2019 stretch (3.0%, 2.5%, 2.6%) and the 2023-2024 stretch (2.5%, 2.8%) push back against the strong form of the hypothesis. The 2026 forecast hovers around 2.1-2.4% which is consistent with either the structural-stagnation view OR a "new normal that happens to look stagnant" view.
Headline CPI cooled meaningfully through 2024-25, but Core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge, hovers slightly higher and the last mile to 2% is the hardest.
Retail gasoline is the inflation signal SMB owners feel first. See where it diverges from the CPI energy index, and why that gap matters for budgets.
The yield curve inverted in mid-2022 and stayed inverted through late 2024, the longest run since the 1970s. This inversion never triggered a recession.