Econ Blog
Real-time economic releases. Plain-English analysis.
Track inflation, employment, GDP, and Fed moves through concise updates and charts published as the data drops. Built for small-business owners who want direct access to the numbers shaping the economy.
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April 15, 2026CPI is back near 2.5%, but is the Fed satisfied?
Headline CPI is at 2.5%. The Fed targets Core PCE. They've narrowed but haven't converged. Why that matters.
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5 postsThe pump price is the most honest inflation gauge SMBs have
The pump price is the most visible inflation signal in America. The CPI 'energy' index is a basket, and the difference between the two is where SMB fuel budgets get blindsided.
Read more→The 10Y-2Y spread inverted for 19 months. Now what?
Every yield-curve inversion since 1980 preceded a recession. The 2022-24 inversion broke the pattern. Three explanations are debated; only the next decade tells which is right.
Read more→Three recessions, three labor-market shapes
The shape of a recession in the labor market tells you what kind of recession it was. 2001, 2008, and 2020 all looked different. The recoveries were even less alike.
Read more→Why oil prices move: the global supply ledger
When global oil consumption runs ahead of production, prices follow. When production catches up, prices ease. Here's the chart that shows it directly.
Read more→A quarter-century of US growth, in one chart
If you wanted to argue the US economy is mediocre OR strong, this chart supports either reading. The smoothed average sits at 2.1%, below the 3% post-WWII trend and above the 1% European norm.
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